Thailand’s rice exports surged in June, driven by Indonesia’s increased demand to maintain food security, the Thai Rice Exporters Association president Charoen Laothamatas said on Tuesday.

According to the Trade Policy and Strategy Office, Thailand exported 1.02 million tonnes of rice in June, up 78.7% year on year. This brought the country’s rice exports in the first half of the year to 5.08 million tonnes, marking a 25% year-on-year rise. The value of rice exports in the first half of this year came in at US$3.30 billion (118.67 billion baht), of which $644 million (23.16 billion baht) was generated in June alone.

Charoen attributed the surge in June exports to the Indonesian government’s plan to ensure food security. However, he warned that the outlook for Thailand’s rice exports for the rest of the year remains uncertain. He reckons Thai exports will be badly hurt if India lifts its white rice export ban and floods the global rice market. Besides this, he said, the immediate outlook for Thai rice industry is still gloomy due to prices. He added that Thailand should overcome this by increasing productivity, generating more income for farmers and boosting competitiveness.

“Thai rice is still costlier than rice from neighbouring countries. For instance, rice from Vietnam is about $30 per tonne cheaper than Thailand,” he said. He attributed the difference in price to the fact that Thailand produces just 400 kilograms of rice per rai, compared to 900 kilos per rai in Vietnam.

Though the demand for rice is rising, Charoen predicts a slowdown due to rising productivity due to more rainfall. He expects Thailand to export 7.5 million tonnes of rice this year as planned.

The Commerce Ministry reported that Indonesia plans to import 3.6 million tonnes of rice this year, mostly from Thailand and Vietnam. Indonesian state agency Bulog Public Corporation has launched bids for rice imports of around 300,000 tonnes per month. In line with this, the ministry said it can be expected that Indonesia will import 1.5 million tonnes of Thai rice this year, which could help the country more than meet its target for 2024.

 The US Department of Agriculture, meanwhile, expects the global rice output in the 2024-2025 period to reach 528.17 million tonnes, up 1.4% compared to 520.87 million tonnes in 2023-2024. The department also expects rice exports from India, Cambodia, Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay, Argentina, the European Union, Australia and the US to increase.

 However, exports from Thailand, Vietnam, Pakistan, Myanmar, China, Guyana and Turkey are expected to drop, the department said.

It also expects Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Ivory Coast, South Africa, United Arab Emirates, Mexico, Mozambique, United Kingdom, Japan, Somalia and the US to import more rice. However, rice imports will be reduced in Iraq, China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Brazil, Kenya and Cameroon, the department added.